Seven Escalation Tracks Converging: Why Polymarket Just Priced Feb 28 at 20%

The casual observer sees a tense but stable standoff. The markets see something else entirely. Below the surface of diplomatic communiques and carefully managed press briefings, a $365 million prediction market is furiously pricing in the probability of a direct US strike on Iran. This is not a poll or a survey — it is a real-money, high-stakes barometer of geopolitical risk, and the needle is moving.

While the odds of a strike today sit at a deceptively calm 1%, the market's forecast darkens rapidly. Traders are giving it a 20% chance by February 28 — a date that has attracted $36 million in trading volume on its own. The odds jump to 46% by March 15, cross the threshold to 57% by end of March, and reach a grim 67% probability by June 30. The market is no longer asking "if," but "when."

These numbers are the frantic pulse of the crisis, reacting in real-time to the intelligence we track. Seven parallel escalation tracks are converging, and every move — from advanced military planning to naval deployments in the Gulf — is being weighed, measured, and bet on. The money is telling a story. Our job is to analyze the intelligence behind it.

1. US Military Planning — Advanced Stage

Reuters reports that US military planning on Iran has reached an "advanced stage" with options that include targeting specific individuals and pursuing regime change in Tehran, if ordered by President Trump. Two US officials confirmed this to Reuters.

This is not posturing. Advanced-stage planning means operational packages are being assembled — target lists, force positioning, and strike sequencing.

Source: Reuters, citing two US officials (Tier 1)

2. Trump's Nuclear Deadline

Trump warned Iran on Thursday that it must make a deal over its nuclear program or "really bad things" will happen, setting a deadline of 10-15 days. Iran responded by threatening to retaliate against US bases in the region if attacked.

This puts the hard deadline around early March. If Geneva talks don't produce a framework by then, the diplomatic window closes.

Source: Reuters, AP (Tier 1)

3. Strait of Hormuz — Live Fire Exercises

Iran temporarily closed parts of the Strait of Hormuz to conduct live-fire exercises. The Strait handles roughly 20% of global oil traffic. This is a deliberate signal — Iran demonstrating it can disrupt energy flows if pushed.

Source: AP, Iranian state media (Tier 1)

4. Geneva Nuclear Talks — 48-Hour Window

Iran's foreign minister said he expected a draft counterproposal within days. US negotiators are ready for another round Friday if they receive a detailed Iranian proposal within 48 hours, per Axios citing a senior US official.

The gap: the US wants rapid, verifiable nuclear limits. Iran wants sanctions relief first. This has been the same impasse for years. The difference now is the military backdrop.

Source: Reuters, Axios (Tier 1-2)

5. Second Carrier Strike Group Deploying

Trump confirmed a second aircraft carrier is heading to the Middle East "very soon." This follows the existing CSG already in the region. Two carrier groups in the Persian Gulf/Arabian Sea area is a significant force projection.

For context: the US typically deploys dual carriers to a theater when planning major operations or during acute crises.

Source: AP, White House (Tier 1)

6. Internal Iranian Unrest

Adding a domestic dimension: Iran is marking 40 days since security forces killed protesters in anti-government demonstrations. New protests have coincided with mourning ceremonies. Internal instability makes the regime both more vulnerable and more unpredictable.

Source: AP, Reuters (Tier 1)

7. Gulf State Assessment

Reuters analysis reports that Iran's Gulf neighbors and Israel now consider conflict more likely than settlement. When the countries closest to the situation start preparing for war rather than peace, pay attention.

Source: Reuters Analysis (Tier 1)