LIVE MONITORING

US Strikes Iran By...?

Pricing in the next war, one signal at a time. We track US-Iran tensions through open-source intelligence, anchored by a $365M prediction market.

POLYMARKET STRIKE ODDS $365M VOL

TODAY

20%

FEB 28

46%

MAR 15

57%

MAR 31

Probability of US strike on Iranian soil by March 31. Source: Polymarket.

Latest Intel

SITREP Feb 22, 2026 — 22:00 UTC ODDS: 20% by Feb 28

Seven Escalation Tracks Converging: Why Polymarket Just Priced Feb 28 at 20%

Advanced US military planning with regime change options, Strait of Hormuz live-fire exercises, Trump's 10-15 day nuclear deadline, second carrier deploying. The market moved $36M on the Feb 28 contract alone.

7 developments tracked Sources: Reuters, AP, Axios, Polymarket

Source Methodology

TIER 1 — VERIFIED

Pentagon, State Dept, Reuters, AP, Iranian state media (noted)

TIER 2 — OSINT

Bellingcat, The War Zone, verified OSINT accounts, flight/ship tracking

TIER 3 — UNVERIFIED

Social media, Telegram channels — always labeled

MARKET DATA

Polymarket odds, volume, and movement as a crowd-sourced probability signal