US Strikes Iran By...?
Pricing in the next war, one signal at a time. We track US-Iran tensions through open-source intelligence, anchored by a $422M prediction market.
Probability of US strike on Iranian soil by March 31. $422M total volume. Source: Polymarket. Updated Feb 25.
Latest Intel
Geneva Countdown: Iran Says Deal "Within Reach" as Trump Contradicts His Own Negotiators
Hours before Round 3 nuclear talks, Trump's State of the Union blew up Witkoff's negotiating framework. Saudi Arabia activating oil contingency. 5th Fleet reportedly emptied Bahrain. But Polymarket odds are dropping — the market smells a deal.
Trump Goes Public: "Weighing Limited Strike on Iran" — Market Surges to 52%
The president acknowledged what anonymous officials had been leaking for days. His own Chairman of the Joint Chiefs warns it won't be easy. Kushner and Witkoff are now guiding the strike decision. Polymarket blows past $389M in volume.
Saudi Arabia's Nuclear Wildcard: The Deal That Changes the Iran Calculus
US-Saudi nuclear deal would allow Riyadh to enrich uranium. Pakistan's nuclear umbrella is already extended. Iran's Geneva negotiators just lost leverage — and the hardliners gained it.
Seven Escalation Tracks Converging: Why Polymarket Just Priced Feb 28 at 20%
Advanced US military planning with regime change options, Strait of Hormuz live-fire exercises, Trump's 10-15 day nuclear deadline, second carrier deploying. The market moved $36M on the Feb 28 contract alone.
Source Methodology
Pentagon, State Dept, Reuters, AP, Iranian state media (noted)
Bellingcat, The War Zone, verified OSINT accounts, flight/ship tracking
Social media, Telegram channels — always labeled
Polymarket odds, volume, and movement as a crowd-sourced probability signal